The green transition has long been an objective of ecological policy, to reduce the levels of CO2 emissions produced by economic activity, under an assumption of trade-offs between economic growth and CO2 reduction. With the cost of wind and solar now in most cases lower than fossil fuels, fossil fuels dependent capital now finds itself disrupted, as new energy production alternatives outcompete them, adding to the political demands put on these industries. Fossil-fuel dependent industries have been strongholds of unionization in Europe, providing high paying blue collar jobs. It is an open question whether new energy production will do the same. Whether new energy jobs rise to replace the old ones, or not, we are entering a period of intensified “creative destruction” (Schumpeter 1942), raising the prospect that the greening of industry will also be a cause of precaritization. Unions and policy makers in some cases have tried to mitigate the effects of job losses on workers and communities by negotiating the transition, and there are reasons for optimism in some cases. At the same time, digital technologies such as AI are also disrupting many industries. Digital tech is supporting and reinforcing the deployment and use of renewables, and related technologies, but its impact in replacing, reconfiguring and intensifying work generally is broad, perhaps even universal. Digital technologies facilitate the introduction of green ones such as distributed energy storage, but also enable management to replace and surveil workers in new ways. AI also depends on green energy development for access to cheap electricity. The green and digital transitions are therefore bound up together in fourth industrial revolution, implying broad and fundamental changes to the way in the economy works – and as with past industrial revolutions we can expect changes to the way social institutions such as unions and welfare states function. Just as disruption of legacy firms and production processes puts pressure on unions and social dialogue institutions to respond strongly with innovative solutions, the increasing precarity of workers caused by the same disruption reduces the power of unions and thrusts many workers outside the circle of production inherent in primary labour markets. The question of how to protect the rights of workers during the green and digital transition is therefore the subject of these dual panels, “Negotiating a Fourth Industrial Revolution: Panel 1 and Panel 2”. Panel 1 consists of three papers and Panel 2 of four. The papers draw on research from three Horizon Europe projects, EGRUiEN, Encouraging a Digital and Green Transition through Revitalised and Inclusive Union-Employer Negotiations, INTEGRATE Integrating Diversity in Social Dialogue, and ISABEL mInimize coSts and mAximize Benefits in the transitionary European regional Labour markets. There are four case studies of transitioning firms and regions, and the social dialogue and policy negotiations around these. There are two analyses of the dynamics and power shifts which result from the introduction of new technologies, and one empirical study of where the jobs are going from, where to, and the implications of that. Discussing these papers together, we hope to achieve a perspective on how the fourth industrial revolution is affecting workers, and how social dialogue institutions can guide the process to prevent or mitigate the precarity arising from the process of creative destruction.
This paper elaborates on the role of trade unions in the green transition in Estonia, Ida-Viru County. The role of Estonian unions in negotiating socio-economic developments, policy processes and company-level changes has been notoriously marginal (Kall, 2020) and often takes the form of illusory corporatism (Woolfson and Kallaste, 2011). However, our focus will be on Ida-Virumaa, that can be considered a last stronghold of traditional unions in Estonia. It is a deindustrializing, Russian-speaking region bordering Russia where Estonia’s energy sector - shaped by the reliance on carbon-intensive oil shale - is concentrated. The persistence of monopolistic state-run mining and energy industries has preserved relatively powerful trade unions, unlike in most other economic sectors. However, how their voices have been included in the EU-led green transition process in the region and what the role of unions will be in newly established “green” companies is less clear. Furthermore, the region borders Russia, and this adds another layer, as the voice of Russian-speaking unionists might be marginalised as a potential security threat as well. Thus, we elaborate the position of traditionally strong unions and emerging new ones in an overall neoliberal “green capitalism” setting, coupled with increasing securitization of politics (Sivonen and Kivimaa, 2024).First, we will give an overview of recent industrial and social dialogue dynamics in this region, contrasting them to general development in the country. Next, we will focus on two paradigmatic company-cases related to green transition: (1) Eesti Energia, the state-owned electricity production and distribution enterprise moving towards greener production; and (2) NPM Narva, a newly established production plant (first of its kind outside Asia) for sintered rare-earth magnets to be used in electric vehicles and wind generators, owned by Canadian multinational corporation. The analysis will be based on secondary data and expert interviews with unionists, managers and policy makers conducted within the framework of EGRUiEN project in 2025-26. ReferencesKall, K. (2020). Fighting Marginalization with Innovation: Turn to Transnational Organizing by Private Sector Trade Unions in post-2008 Estonia. Tallinn: Tallinna Ülikool.Sivonen, M. H., & Kivimaa, P. (2024). Securitization of Energy Transitions in Estonia, Finland and Norway. International Political Sociology, 18(3), olae017.Woolfson, C., & Kallaste, E. (2011). ‘Illusory
Social partnership and cooperation between trade unions and employers are generally expected to mitigate the negative impacts of energy-sector transformation by ensuring that consequences for workers are minimised. Slovakia completed its phase-out of coal mining—and partially also coal-based electricity generation—between 2023 and 2024. More than 1,000 workers lost their jobs during this period, either entering unemployment registers or retiring. The closure of mines and the associated power plant had substantial repercussions for the Upper Nitra region, a historically structurally weak area in western Slovakia.This paper examines the negotiation processes accompanying these closures, with particular attention to the role of social dialogue in relation to other local and national actors involved in the region's transformation. Our findings indicate that social dialogue and collective bargaining were not the central arenas in which just transition measures were designed. Decision-making was predominantly transferred to regional and national levels, where formalised and binding negotiations with social partners were largely absent. As a result, traditional social dialogue contributed to shaping just transition mechanisms mainly at the company level, while broader forms of civil dialogue emerged at higher governance levels. Therefore we aim to understand to what extent other coordination structures involving a wider range of stakeholders substituted or complemented traditional forms of social dialogue.Using a multi-level governance framework, the paper analyses the role and limitations of social partners in a context characterised by weak institutional structures for social dialogue. The study aims to contribute to a broader understanding of how social dialogue functions within policy negotiations on just transition, particularly in regions where the institutional capacity for social-partner involvement is limited.
The rapid expansion of offshore wind energy is reshaping not only energy systems but also the organisation of work and labour relations within the green transition. This paper examines the changing dynamics of social dialogue in green energy production through the case of the Dogger Bank Wind Farm, the world’s largest offshore wind project. Historically, energy production in Europe has been characterised by centralised infrastructure, stable employment, and highly unionised workforces embedded within single firms or production sites. In contrast, contemporary offshore wind developments are increasingly decentralised, digitally monitored, and designed to operate with minimal on-site staffing.At Dogger Bank, energy generation and maintenance rely heavily on a fragmented network of third-party service providers delivering specialised functions across multiple sites and companies, often on short-term, contractual, or ad hoc bases. This shift from a concentrated and coordinated workforce to a dispersed and mobile labour model presents significant challenges for established mechanisms of social dialogue, collective bargaining, and worker representation. Traditional sectoral and enterprise-based frameworks struggle to capture workers whose employment relationships are indirect, temporary, or transnational.Situated within the UK industrial relations context, the Dogger Bank case highlights growing strains on established systems of social dialogue as labour is increasingly organised through highly dispersed, subcontracted, and often weakly represented service providers. Many workers involved in offshore wind construction, operations, and maintenance fall outside traditional UK union structures, either because they are employed by small specialist firms, engaged on short-term or project-based contracts, or deployed transnationally through service providers operating across the EU. In some cases, key technical services are delivered by firms headquartered in other European countries, further complicating jurisdictional responsibility, collective bargaining coverage, and worker voice. This raises critical questions for a sector historically characterised by stable employment, clear employer identities, and strong institutionalised dialogue: in a labour landscape where workers’ interests are increasingly tied to the commercial success and survival of smaller firms rather than large energy producers, what becomes of traditional channels of social dialogue, and how are they being reshaped in practice? By examining emerging forms of coordination, representation, and exclusion within the UK offshore wind sector, this paper argues that without deliberate adaptation, existing social dialogue frameworks risk lagging behind the realities of green energy